Busting myths of the portal, plus a preview of the Big 12 (2024)

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Today, we’re previewing the Big 12. But first, what’s really happening in the transfer portal?

Transfer Portal Secrets

Fact or fiction?

The Athletic anonymously surveyed various people — coaches, staffers, players, NIL agents — to learn the truth behind college football’s portal and NIL negotiations. So which rumors are true? And which are myths? Let’s break them down.

Programs are reaching out to players before the portal opens: Fact ✅

Portal preparation is a year-round conversation — even if contact between schools and players is not permitted unless those players are in the portal. Schools are watching college film, just like they do for high school recruits, one assistant coach said, and planting the seed in players’ minds by following them on social media and making calls to their high school coaches or families is common practice.

Said one head coach: It’s so out of control because everybody knows there’s not any regulations to it. It’s like you’re on the freeway, and there’s a speed limit but no cops. I mean there is no regulatory body. Like there is in theory, but nobody cares.

NIL deals are negotiated early: Fact ✅

In February, a federal judge in Tennessee blocked the NCAA from enforcing its rules against recruits signing monetary deals with booster groups, so this one isn’t much of a surprise. But multiple sources stressed the prevalence of agents in these discussions.

Said one head coach: I had a player commit to me, to my face, on a visit. And I asked if we needed to talk business, and the player said, “No, I’m good, just talk to my agent.” And the agent was out of this world, saying it would cost $800,000 to $1.2 million. OK, well, sorry, we’re out. Is the kid really going to get that money? I don’t know. But he’s not coming here now.

NIL and the transfer portal have turned college football into the “Wild West”: Fiction(ish) ❌

Many have compared college football’s chaos to the wild, wild west, but is this era of the portal and NIL deals really just the new reality?

Said one NIL collective CEO: Any journalist or coach or administrator who says it’s the wild, wild west out there lets me know that person is f—in’ lazy. That’s the mantra that people say who don’t get it. Is it hectic? 100 percent, but the collective landscape is the only one trying to make it not the wild west.

Read the full story here.

What’s New in Big 12?

Can Utah make waves in Year 1?

Although the Big 12 will lose Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC this summer, the conference will expand to 16 teams in 2024 with the additions of four former Pac-12 programs:

• Arizona: The Wildcats were able to keep QB Noah Fifta in Tucson after his record-breaking freshman campaign. Along the way to a seven-game winning streak in 2023, Fifta posted the highest single-season completion percentage (72.4 percent) in program history. Top receiver Tetairoa McMillan is also back for the Wildcats.
• Arizona State: Second-year coach Kenny Dillingham has his work cut out for him as the Sun Devils enter a new conference. Arizona State drew a tough road schedule in 2024, opening play at Texas Tech (Sept. 21) before visiting Cincinnati (Oct. 19), Oklahoma State (Nov. 2), Kansas State (Nov. 16) and Arizona (Nov. 30). Three of the four QBs who started games last season transferred, and the roster is a bit of a mystery.
• Colorado: Is the Deion Sanders experiment working? In Year 2, it’s time to find out. Coach Prime brought in the top-ranked transfer class in the Big 12, which ranks seventh nationally, as the Buffaloes return to their previous conference home. New coordinators on offense (Pat Shurmur) and defense (Robert Livingston) will look to right the wrongs that turned the Buffs’ 2023 season sour with a 4-8 finish. The roster returns familiar faces in QB Shedeur Sanders and two-way star Travis Hunter.
• Utah: The Utes are expected to see the most success among the Big 12 newcomers. Kyle Whittingham is one of the most consistent coaches in the sport, and QB Cam Rising is back for his seventh season of college football. Utah skips conference favorites Kansas and Kansas State on its schedule, meaning a road trip to Oklahoma State on Sept. 21 looks like the biggest obstacle.

New head coaches:

• Willie Fritz at Houston: Fritz is a consistent winner, ranking fifth among active FBS head coaches with 208 wins. His hiring signals what the Coogs hope will be a turn of the page — the school fired former coach Dana Holgorsen in November after five seasons and a 31-28 record. The back-to-back AAC coach of the year joins Houston after eight seasons at Tulane, headlined by 12-2 and 11-2 campaigns the past two years.
• Brent Brennan at Arizona: It was a bummer to see Jedd Fisch leave Arizona for Washington after the Wildcats’ best season in a quarter-century. Arizona replaced him with Brennan, who nearly got the job in 2021. Brennan spent seven seasons as the coach at San Jose State and took the program to three bowl games in his last four years.

Key Big 12 returners plus a new starting QB

I’ve brought in Justin Williams to tell us about three Big 12 players he’s most intrigued to watch in 2024:

• Ollie Gordon II, RB, Oklahoma State: The reigning All-American and Doak Walker Award winner emerged out of nowhere as the best running back in college football last season, rushing for 1,700-plus yards and 21 touchdowns while carrying the Cowboys to the Big 12 Championship Game. On a team that returns 21 starters and the vast majority of its production from a season ago, a stud like Gordon could have the Pokes contending for the conference crown again.
• Cam Rising, QB, Utah: He’s arguably the most intriguing and impactful player in the league as far as the title race is concerned. After missing all of 2023 with a devastating knee injury he suffered in the previous season’s Rose Bowl, Rising looked healthy in spring practice. If he can stay on the field this fall and resemble the former Pac-12 all-conference QB from 2021 and 2022, the Utes may well be the favorites for their inaugural run in the Big 12.
• Avery Johnson, QB, Kansas State: The 2023 MVP of the Pop-Tarts Bowl is a dual-threat dynamo, tossing for nearly 500 yards and running for another 300 in eight appearances as a true freshman. He takes over as the full-time starter with Will Howard off to Ohio State and leads a Kansas State offense that should have one of the best rushing attacks in the country. If Johnson can continue on the same trajectory as a sophom*ore that he flashed last season, Kansas State will be a force in the title race and 12-team College Football Playoff picture.

Question of the Day

A Big 12 dark horse?

It’s time for our next Until Saturday Question of the Day, which, you guessed it, has everything to do with the Big 12.

Which program is this year’s Big 12 dark horse? Submit your answer here or send your response via email to UntilSaturday@TheAthletic.com.

To stick to the true definition of a dark horse, answer selections have been limited to teams outside of the conference favorites (Arizona, Kansas, Kansas State and Utah). Trust me, we’ll get to the top contenders later in this series.

Other dark horse polls: ACC (newsletter, podcast).

Quick Snaps

Last week, a PlayStation Store update leaked a Deluxe Edition cover of EA Sports’ “College Football 25,” which will be released this summer. The cover, which has not been formerly released or confirmed by EA Sports, includes Texas QB Quinn Ewers, Michigan RB Donovan Edwards and Colorado DB/WR Travis Hunter.

The Until Saturday podcast crew reacts to the cover in today’s episode. Other topics include the Mount Rushmore of CFB villains and Baylor’s gamble on Dave Aranda.

Could walk-ons disappear from college football? Seth Emerson takes a look at that possibility.

How has Alabama adjusted its NIL approach without Nick Saban? Kennington Smith III breaks it down.

Big 12 quarterback carousel: Who’s back, who’s in, who’s out? Sam Khan takes a look.

Plus, the college softball postseason is here. After three consecutive years as the No. 1 seed, Oklahoma was jumped by Big 12 rival Texas for the top spot. Read more about the bracket here.

You can buy tickets to every college football game here.

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(Top photo: Kirby Lee / USA Today)

Jayna Bardahl is a college football staff editor for The Athletic. She has worked as an editor and reporter covering Big Ten football and men's basketball, and was an intern at The Boston Globe, where she covered the Boston Red Sox and New England Patriots. Follow Jayna on Twitter @Jaynabardahl