Florida sees surge in COVID-19 cases, but how dangerous is the virus today? (2024)

COVID-19 cases are on the rise this summer in Central Florida. The Florida Department of Health reported the highest weekly case totals so far this year in Orange County, with 1,400 cases in the first week of July and 1,200 cases in the second week. The cases fall in line with a rising trend of COVID seen around the country.

Orange County’s weekly case total is the highest reported this year beating out the winter spike in January, which was reported at about 1,100, state data shows. The county’s lowest reported week was the first week of May with 145 reported cases. As for the state, Florida reported 21,000 cases in the first week of July, which was an 11% increase from its lowest weekly total reported in April at 2,390 cases.

Why are we seeing increases in COVID cases?

Across the country, the Centers for Disease Control and Preventionreport that viral activity in wastewater has been high, but hospitalizations, severity, and deaths have been low.

The majority of cases reported are the highly transmissible subvariant strains of the Omnicron variant.

The strains are extremely contagious as they have mutated to avoid most people’s immune systems, but the infections they create are mild, said Dr. Ira Longini a professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida.

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“It's evolved to a point where it causes more like a cold like you'd get from a normal seasonal cold virus, although it's still highly transmissible,” Longini said.

Is it dangerous?

The current strain’s severity isn’t showing any more symptoms than a common cold including mild fever, body aches, stuffy nose, and difficulty breathing.

“It’s because it only infects the upper respiratory tract and it doesn't get deep into the lungs,” Longini said. “Most, almost everybody infected has a mild illness or no illness.”

But that’s not the case for everyone.

“Some people do become very ill and end up in the hospital or even dying because they have underlying factors that contribute to that, but most people recover in three, four, or five days from this current subvariant of COVID-19,” Longini said.

Florida reported 3,000 deaths from COVID this year. Orange County reported about 121 deaths in 2024. But that’s a drop from last year: Florida reported 8,000 deaths in 2023. Orange reported 329.

Do we still quarantine?

While the numbers are relatively low, and COVID is mutating closer to the common cold, Longini still recommends people should quarantine (for three to five days) or wear a mask if they test positive to protect those who are immunocompromised.

“It could infect an immune-compromised person and regain some of its function as far as severity. And we really don't want another variant that causes severe disease,” Longini said.

Research also shows that COVID-19 patients with immunodeficiency have an increased risk of developing a chronic prolonged phase of infection.

“The best protection against that is for people to try to damp down the transmission as much as possible. So sequestering oneself during their illness is a good idea,” Longini said. “None of us want this virus even in a more reduced form.”

The CDCrecommends five days of quarantine and to take precautions for 10 days. If a patient is in public, it’s recommended they wear a facemask for 10 days.

What about vaccines?

As for vaccinations, the amount of Floridians receiving COVID protection has fallen dramatically since its peak in 2021 with 15 million people receiving at least one shot, Florida data shows. In 2023, those numbers fell to 1.9 million.

While interest in vaccine protection has waned along with the virus’ severity, Longini said the vaccine can still protect against mild infection and offer a large amount of protection against severe infections, despite most vaccines being behind whatever the current rotating strain is.

“[The vaccine] is going to be several mutations behind the strain that's circulating. So it's not going to be perfect protection but we find that you reduce your risk by 20 to 50% against illness and 70 or 80% against severe illness,” Longini said.

As for wearing a mask, Longini said that it’s really up to the individual to consider.

“I don't think it's necessary anymore to wear a mask unless you're infected,” Longini said. “In a large gathering or on an airplane, I recommend you (wear a mask) for personal reasons if you want to protect yourself.”